A consultative online survey on the U.S. election (12 October 2024; N=486) points to a pragmatic outlook: most respondents expect a limited impact on Serbia, yet they do recognize differences by issue area.
The EU is the clear first-choice “space of trust.” If they had to pick where they would most willingly go for treatment, 67.9% choose the EU; for education, 58.2%; and for a court dispute, 67.5%. On business, the EU (43.4%) and the U.S. (39.7%) are nearly tied—suggesting that “rules and services” are associated more with Europe, while “opportunity and markets” are also strongly linked to America.
Perceptions of Serbia–U.S. relations are still shaped by 1999: the NATO bombing and Bill Clinton dominate negative associations, while positive references most often include Nikola Tesla and Mihajlo Pupin. In the same vein, the sale of the General Staff (Generalštab) building to a U.S. company is rated negative/very negative by 68.1% of respondents.
While 66.1% know that elections are being held this year and consider them important, there is no consensus on whether they will be free and fair: 46.3% believe they will be, 37.2% are unsure, and 16.5% do not believe they will be.
When it comes to expected effects on Serbia, “status quo” dominates: for Harris, 53.3% expect no change; for Trump, 41.8%. Still, respondents differentiate between candidates depending on the topic. Harris is more often seen as better for the rule of law in Serbia (43.0% versus 8.6% for Trump) and for EU integration (37.7% versus 10.5%). Trump leads on the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue (31.7% versus 20.6%) and on the war in Ukraine (44.9% versus 34.2%).
Openness to cooperation with the U.S. is higher if Harris wins: stronger economic cooperation is supported by 66.5% (versus 57.0% for Trump), and stronger political cooperation by 61.7% (versus 49.0%). In a hypothetical vote, as U.S. citizens a majority would choose Harris (60.3%); as Serbian citizens the gap is smaller, but still in her favor (53.7% versus 46.3%).
Information pathways are mostly digital and “non-national”: respondents most often follow U.S. topics via the internet and social networks (24.8%), cable channels N1/Nova (19.3%), and U.S. media (16.0%). RTS and other national broadcasters are more often perceived as pro-Trump, while N1/Nova are perceived as pro-Harris.
Methodological note: this is an online, consultative sample, so the results should be read as a “signal” rather than a representative measurement.